Friday News Roundup — March 13, 2020
Controlling Coronavirus; The Pentagon’s Pandemic Response; Biden Breaks Away; Plus News You May Have Missed
A good Friday morning to you from Washington, D.C., where the mood has darkened over the week with growing dread over the spread of Coronavirus, concerns about preparedness, and uncertainty about the humanitarian and economic impact.
Dan starts off this week’s roundup looking at the current impact of the virus, and what it might mean to respond to this challenge. Our Senior Military Fellow Ethan looks at how the Department of Defense is responding to the pandemic, providing a glimpse at how one part of government responds.
Still, politics have continued apace, as former Vice President Joe Biden continues to find success at the polls. Chris covers Biden’s widening lead, and compares his coalition to Senator Sanders’ to glimpse the future of the Democratic Party. As always we wrap up with news you may have missed.
On a logistical note, like many organizations responding to the Covid-19 pandemic, we are preparing for potential disruptions, ensuring employees are prepared for telework, and exploring ways to continue our unique covening power through virtual means. To that end, our upcoming Spring 2020 Presidential Fellows Conference will be a virtual conference. This will provide the fellows with as similar an experience as possible to their time in Washington, while also addressing concerns about the safety of travel and in-person conferences.
We will continue to provide updates via social media and these newsletters as other programs evolve, and we wish you and yours safety and good health.
After Social Distancing…
Dan Mahaffee
It is clear now, from the statements of government experts, that we are past the point of containing the Covid-19 outbreak. The crux of our efforts now: to ensure that the U.S. healthcare system does not find itself overwhelmed like that of Italy, where doctors have had to decide who can be saved — and who cannot. As public officials shut down events, discourage gatherings, promote “social distancing,” and limit travel, it is to slow the spread of the disease such that the capacity of the healthcare system can cope. As the chart above shows, these actions aim to “flatten the curve.” While we complain about shortages of toilet paper now, it pales in comparison to a potential shortage in hospital beds, ventilators, and medical professionals.
There are societal, economic, and political costs to these efforts needed to save lives. On Wednesday, news broke that the NBA season was suspended and actor Tom Hanks and actress and singer Rita Wilson, his wife, had tested positive for the virus. Once ESPN and TMZ are covering the story, of course, the American public is now truly aware of the crisis. Now, as cold spring mornings give way to warm afternoons, baseball stadiums across the country will be silent, and this year’s cohort of young men and women will be unable to compete to cut down the nets at the NCAA championships.
From Wall Street to Washington, the impact of the pandemic is now clear, and much of that impact is the price of uncertainty. The failings in rapid and widespread testing for the virus have made the true scope of the virus unclear — and left us mitigating rather than containing. At this point, it is on the shoulders of policymakers to address the pandemic’s economic disruption.
Central banks have taken action, but a virus, and a public scared by the virus, don’t care about the cost of money. Central bankers can only ensure that the system continues to function as stresses grow. Fiscal action is needed. There is no moral hazard or bailout for any irresponsibility when responding to a crisis like this. This virus does not distinguish between left and right, rural and urban, or race and sexuality. It renders moot the divides that our political leaders and media magnates use as shibboleths to divide Americans.
Over the coming weeks, we’ll see more and more of the response carried out at the state and local level. Our demand on these levels of government will demonstrate the resiliency and flexibility of federalism, yet also lay bare how we have hollowed out key organs of local government. In the end, may we perhaps re-realize that our federal system allows for the “right-sizing” of government at each level. Good, robust, reformed governance need not always come from Washington.
Finally, there are always the long-term changes that this crisis may bring about. Will education change with greater remote, digital learning? What of an increasingly global economy? Vulnerable economic sectors and industries? These are historic times, and historic times are about adaptation and transition. The world of the next few weeks, or even few months, will be greatly different than what came before. What we must ask of our leaders now is not what orthodoxies they hold, but their willingness to rise to the challenge of these times.
Pandemic Impact on National Security
Ethan Brown
With a profound undertone of inevitability, the World Health Organization officially declared the COVID-19 Coronavirus a global pandemic on Wednesday, following a 13-fold increase in confirmed cases worldwide and a tripling of states affected, according to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. As of this writing, there are over 120,000 confirmed cases in 114 separate countries resulting in over 4000 fatalities. This global pandemic designation is the first by the WHO since the 2009 H1N1 “swine flu” outbreak, which caused over 18,000 deaths and infected between 700 million and a possible 1.4 billion people. This designation is likely attributable to the sudden and aggressive spread of the virus in parts of the Middle East and particularly in Europe.
The situation in Italy is especially dire, where Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte ordered the closing of all businesses save food stores and pharmacies, after the virus claimed 630 fatalities, second only to China, where the virus originated. In Iran, over 9000 cases and 354 deaths have been officially reported, and while the WHO has provided over 40,000 test kits to the Islamic Republic, a shortage of ventilators and oxygen all but ensures further escalation of the virus. German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that upwards of 70% of the German population could become infected, and stated that the current efforts are focused on “winning time” in controlling the spread of the disease, for which there is currently no cure.
COVID-19 vs. The Field
Despite its comparatively low mortality rate compared to other recent viral outbreaks (though its 3.0% +/- is still considerably higher than the common flu), this particular virus has had an outsized effect on everyday life around the globe based on its high degree of infectivity. Societal impact by COVID-19 range from this week’s Dow Jones Industrial Average fall from a bull market for the first time since the 2008 stock market crisis to the NBA suspending its season until further notice when a member of the Utah Jazz tested positive for the virus; the NCAA followed suit regarding the March Madness tournament.
COVID-19 vs. Defense & National Security
From the national security and defense angle, COVID-19 is directly impacting militaries around the world as well. The US European Command canceled “Exercise Cold Response 20”, a US-led Joint maneuver exercise in partnership with NATO and ten European states located above the Arctic Circle, which involved the largest deployment of US forces (20,000+) to Europe in over 25 years. More than 20 US Army personnel are quarantined after coming into contact with a Norweigan soldier who tested positive for COVID-19.
In addition to Cold Response 20’s cancellation, US Military leaders announced the DoD would scale back the size and scope of US forces involved in Exercise African Lion with militaries from Morocco, Tunisia and Senegal in order to reduce exposure of partner nations and US personnel to the novel coronavirus.
Despite some derogatory rhetoric in the media regarding the Trump administration’s response to the virus outbreak (further fueled by misinformation across social media), the DoD regularly rehearses for such contingencies as pandemics, supplemental to standard CBRN-E/Chemical-Biological-Radiological-Nuclear-Environmental hazards as part of its readiness posture. At a recent Pacific Operational Science and Technology (POST) Conference, hosted in Hawaii by INDOPACOM, Rear Adm. Louis Tripoli defined the DoDs approach to pandemics as a seven-phase concept: Prepare; Protect; Mitigate; Respond; Stabilize; and Transition & Recovery; “we’re in phase two, which is the mitigate phase…you don’t really get to the ‘respond’ phase until you have some effective countermeasures” said R. Adm. Tripoli informed a media contingent at the POST ConFab.
A major contingent of the mitigate phase has been implemented by Defense Secretary Mark Esper in the form of major travel restrictions for all DoD personnel (servicemembers, civilian employees, and service member dependents) for both training attendance and Permanent Change of Station (PCS) moves/transfers. The DoD has further implemented a strict travel ban on states designated “Warning Level 3” (China, South Korea and over a dozen states in Europe) for 60 days, excluding mission essential personnel or those tasked for humanitarian missions. The DoD is deeply involved in the research & development of a COVID-19 vaccine, with experts at the Emerging Infectious Disease Center at Walter Reed Army Medical Institute have partnered with the CDC and National Institute of Health, utilizing a ‘whole of government’ approach and advancing the testing of experimental vaccines, however these processes take lengthy periods of time.
In short, the reaction to the spread of the virus has directly affected the DoD’s short-term capacity to continue developing close partnerships with friendly states in areas of National Security Interest abroad. Regarding the EUCOM exercise cancellations, much of the US influence in countering Russian Aggression in the region stems from its close ties with NATO partners, advanced during such training events as Cold Response and Defender-Europe. Amidst the growing concern and instability caused by the COVID-19 spread, it is no coincidence that Russia continues to perpetuate global unrest by conflagrating an oil price/production war with Saudi Arabia and the US.
Expectations for DoD Amidst a Global Pandemic
Simply, the gargantuan enterprise of the US military will “Charlie Mike” (continue mission), while these current efforts are in reality an exceptionally aggressive approach to containing the virus to the maximum extent possible. It has been broadly reported and well understood that the virus has minimal effects to healthy adults under the age of 50, which is essentially the entire DoD population. Similar to the H1N1 outbreak of 2009 (which this author managed to survive while attending an arduous year-long technical training and selection pipeline), isolation and quarantines will go into effect whenever and wherever appropriate, support personnel (medical, security, and essential services) will unfortunately have to pull some extended and thankless shifts, and in a few months the DoD will return to normalcy and pick up with our partner nations. Aggressors like Russia and North Korea are simply taking advantage of a tense situation and attempting to get away with activity they may not have attempted otherwise.
For what it’s worth, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un is not concerned about COVID-19, as evidenced by his lack of a facemask during a recent projectile firing test, despite everyone around him adhering to this basic safety protocol, shown below:
The views are of the author, and do not reflect the views, position, or policy of the U.S. Air Force or Department of Defense.
Biden Widens His Lead
Chris Condon
If you had told me a month ago that Joe Biden would be a dominant frontrunner in the Democratic Primary by mid-March, I probably would have laughed. At that point, the former vice president had finished in fourth place in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. Although it was generally accepted that Biden would secure a stronger showing in South Carolina, many seriously began to doubt his viability in other races, and some even began to question how much of a sure thing South Carolina was for his campaign. After steamrolling expectations in the Palmetto State, however, things began to change for him. Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the race, endorsing the former vice president to stave off a seemingly unstoppable Bernie Sanders campaign.
Then came Super Tuesday. While Biden performed well in more conservative states that one would expect (Alabama, Arkansas, etc.), he also widely outperformed expectations across the board, winning states like Minnesota and Massachusetts. While it looks like Senator Sanders will secure victory in California, the largest contest of the night, Vice President Biden emerged from Super Tuesday with 629 delegates to Sanders’ 539. After an abysmal performance, Michael Bloomberg bowed out of the race despite spending half a billion dollars on his campaign, and promised to do everything he could to elect Joe Biden. While many ascribe such consolidation of the “moderate lane” as the sole cause of Biden’s success, there are many factors at play that contributed to such a stunning turn of events.
Exit polls from Super Tuesday can help us parse out the situation. In essence, much of what fueled Biden’s performance is that he defeated Bernie Sanders at his own game. While Sanders held on to millennial voters and won hispanic voters by a relatively slim margin, Vice President Biden won white voters and black voters by a wide margin. Most telling within this statistic is perhaps the most important “battleground demographic” in this year’s primary: white voters without a college degree. Biden won these voters on Super Tuesday, despite their overwhelming support for Bernie Sanders in 2016. The former vice president has created a strong coalition of white suburban and rural voters, as well as securing a wide berth of support among African Americans and chipping away at Sanders’ lead among hispanic voters. These factors contributed to Joe Biden’s victories on Super Tuesday, and his subsequent victories in all but one state on “mini Super Tuesday” this week.
One could spend days analyzing the outcome of the primary elections to date, but a more interesting analysis is forward-looking. While it is abundantly clear that Joe Biden has vastly outperformed expectations thus far, what does his success mean moving forward? First, let us turn to the next Democratic Primary debate this coming Sunday. Senator Sanders has a very slim path to overcome Joe Biden’s advantage at this point in the race, and his chances hinge largely on Sunday night’s face-to-face meeting. One group Biden also won overwhelmingly on Super Tuesday and beyond was voters whose support was decided near the election itself, a key advantage. If Senator Sanders can somehow convince undecided voters that Vice President Biden is unable to adequately serve the Party as the nominee or serve the country as president, there is a slim chance he can recover his former position as the frontrunner.
It is also worth mentioning that Bernie Sanders has run an extraordinary campaign to date. His base, young voters, have been absolutely unshakeable throughout the campaigns both of 2016 and 2018. He has capitalized on this advantage to great effect, expanding turnout amongst young people and energizing them enough to allow his base of support to spread to hispanic voters and keeping him competitive among working-class white voters. His campaign organization is unprecedented, with thousands upon thousands of volunteers supporting his campaign with labor and millions of Americans making small monetary donations to fund Sanders’ nationwide media buys and his outstanding performances in early states. To date, his campaign has received the most individual donations of any Democratic campaign in American history. In short, it is remarkable.
Something to consider in the short term is how Biden’s advantages will influence the general election. If he can perpetuate his strong performance with white, suburban voters, he may be able to recapture many of the communities that President Trump flipped in 2016. His support among black voters is also crucial, as a large part of the Democratic base would be chipped away without such support. If Biden can turn out African American voters in numbers approaching those of Barack Obama, he may be able to put states like North Carolina in play.
Joe Biden’s resurgence has important implications for the 2020 presidential race, but the battle between Biden and Bernie Sanders may be even more important for the future of the Democratic Party. The former vice president’s advantage lies most strongly with older voters, especially those over 65 years of age. Unprecedented enthusiasm for Sanders’ campaign among young voters gives us an indication of where the Party is headed. In 2016, many voters wouldn’t even consider supporting proposals such as “Medicare for All” or cancelling all federal student debt, but Bernie Sanders’ campaigns have brought them to the forefront of the progressive community. In the coming cycles, expect these ideas to take an even more prominent position in the Democratic headspace as younger voters garner increasing levels of political power.
News You May Have Missed
Aida Olivas
Paul To Oppose Surveillance Bill, Throwing FISA Renewal In Doubt
GOP leaders intend to put forth a bill reauthorizing the 2015 USA Freedom Act with unanimous consent, but Sen. Rand Paul has said he will oppose it. Paul would consider a 45 day extension to determine if amendments are necessary because he believes “a House bill with no amendments is completely unacceptable and an affront to…those…concerned about FISA abuse”. The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act easily passed the House on Wednesday, March 11, with new privacy protections and new FISA court system requirements, but has come under fire in recent years from Trump allies with criticisms of process abuse when former Trump campaign advisor, Carter Page, was wiretapped. The future of the bill is being debated as some Republican senators hope for the bill’s speedy reauthorization before the March 15th deadline and others calling for Trump to veto it.
Senate Bill Would Ban TikTok On Federal Employees Phones
The bill stems from national security concerns from the app’s origin: China. It follows similar prohibitions that have been put in place by the State Department, Department of Homeland Security, and DoD. TikTok’s owner, ByteDance, “is required by law to share user data with Beijing” which poses a large security risk to American networks and government technology. The No TikTok on Government Devices Act was proposed by Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Rick Scott of Florida, and last week the House passed similar legislation as proposed by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia to protect “Americans from Chinese surveillance”. TikTok representatives have repeatedly declined to testify at congressional hearings but have also denied ties to the Chinese government.
EU To Give Migrants In Greece €2,000 To Go Home
As Greek reception centers struggle with the already large numbers of migrants currently there, hundreds more refugees have been arriving by boat to various Greek islands. Originally designed for about 6,000 people, the centers are overflowing with nearly 42,000 asylum seekers prompting the EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson to offer around €2,000 to each migrant willing to go back to their home country. The offer is available for only one month and only those who arrived before January 1 can take advantage of it. Seven EU member states have also agreed to take in at least 1,600 unaccompanied children out of more than 14,000 children who currently reside there. Many of the refugees are Syrians, Afghans, Pakistanis, and West Africans and while countries such as Syria are considered too dangerous to return to, others such as Pakistan are considered safe enough. Greece, in their desperation, has also temporarily suspended processing new asylum applications much to the criticism of aid groups.
Bernard Madoff Wants To Make ‘Dying, Personal Plea’ For Freedom
Bernie Madoff, who has been in jail for 11 years and is currently serving a 150 year sentence, is seeking a “compassionate release” under the 2018 bipartisan First Step Act that allows early freedom to elderly prisoners, usually for health reasons. Despite Madoff suffering from kidney failure, confinement to a wheelchair, and many other illnesses, prosecutors have pushed against it due to the nature of his crimes which included stealing from “thousands of individuals, charities, pension funds and hedge funds, including many with ties to the Jewish community, over multiple decades’’ resulting in an estimated $17.5 billion lost. Circuit Court Judge Chin called his crimes “extraordinarily evil” when the case was heard in 2009. Prosecutors have stated that Madoff has yet to accept responsibility and regularly “deflects blame” toward victims in interviews from prison, therefore, any claims of having accepted responsibility would be entirely “self-serving”.
The views of authors are their own and not that of CSPC.
