Friday News Roundup - May 17, 2024
This week saw potential inflection points in the two conflicts destabilizing the global order as well as domestic politics.
Plumbs of smoke rose above the Gaza city of Rafah after Israeli warplanes and tanks bombarded the southern enclave on Friday, indicating that the Israeli government is barreling towards a long-threatened major ground offensive that the Biden Administration has warned is a “red line” that should not be crossed. According to U.N. officials, 630,000 Palestinians refugees displaced by earlier fighting in Gaza have already fled Rafah since the offensive began on May 6, many moving to areas lacking adequate food, shelter and medical care. Meanwhile, Israeli ground forces were also battling Hamas terrorists in fierce fighting in Jabalia in northern Gaza, which Israeli had reported cleared months ago.
In related news, Israeli officials said on Friday that they had recovered the bodies of three Israeli hostages killed when Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023, killing more than 1,200 people and abducting 253. Officials estimate that 128 hostages are still being held in Gaza, though their condition is not known. More than 35,000 Palestinians have also reportedly been killed in Gaza as a result of months of fighting. U.S. aid deliveries also began arriving this week at a U.S.-built pier off the Gaza Strip, as Israel faces intense international pressure to allow more supplies into the besieged coastal enclave. According to U.S. Central Command officials, no U.S. troops went ashore during the aid delivery operation.
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky canceled planned trips to Spain and Portugal this week after Russian forces launched an offensive that has made major gains near the country’s second largest city of Kharkiv. U.S. officials fear that Russia’s recent wave of attacks are preparing the battlespace for an operation to try and capture Kharkiv. In part because of the U.S. Congress’ months-long delay in approving military aid to Ukraine, Ukranian forces are struggling with a lack of weapons and ammunition, forcing commanders to withdraw some units from their positions defending the Kharkiv perimeter.
In an attempt to bolster the sagging morale of Ukrainian forces, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise visit to Kyiv this week, meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in the first visit by a Biden administration official since the long-delayed U.S. military aid finally passed last month. “I have come to Ukraine with a message: You are not alone,” Blinken said on his arrival.
In this week’s Roundup, Senior Fellow Hidetoshi Azuma analyzes Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s efforts to consolidate political power for years to come.
Fumio Kishida’s Unipolar Moment
By: Hidetoshi Azuma
Japan’s ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is in an existential crisis. Last month, the LDP suffered a crushing defeat in the three Lower House by-elections in the conservative stronghold of Shimane Prefecture. Most embarrassingly, the LDP yielded all three vacant parliamentary seats to the leftist Constitutional Democratic Party, threatening the ruling party’s very raison d’etre. As a result, defeatism is increasingly engulfing the LDP as it fast approaches both a general election and a party presidential election. Despite this, the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ironically finds himself at the height of his power and increasingly looks to consolidate it for years to come.
In fact, the growing defeatism overshadowing the LDP these days only benefits Kishida. Indeed, he himself originally emerged in the LDP’s power vacuum left by the former prime minister Shinzo Abe’s long reign and, later, his untimely demise. Since his inauguration in October 2021, Kishida has steadily been disrupting the LDP by first reviving the factionalism of the bygone era and later dismantling it. In other words, his ruthless divide-and-conquer strategy has had the unmistakable effect of undermining the LDP’s power in exchange for his, which now stands virtually unrivaled within the ruling party. Therefore, the prevailing defeatism within the LDP has been Kishida’s latest windfall blessing, further contributing to his ascendancy.
To be sure, this does not mean Kishida’s invincibility. In fact, he derives his preeminence in domestic Japanese politics largely from Washington’s growing trust in him and his patronage by the country’s foremost kingmaker, the former prime minister Taro Aso. Indeed, Kishida has so far proven himself to be Japan’s leading pro-US politician and Aso’s most trusted protégé. Of course, this in turn signifies that he finds himself fundamentally beholden to the whims of two of the most insurmountable forces. Yet, he has emerged indispensable with his unmistakable track record of fulfilling Washington’s wish list for Japan one after another and faithfully executing Aso’s agenda for the LDP.
The upshot has been the emerging possibility of Kishida’s long reign even rivaling Abe’s. This is occurring despite the incumbent Japanese leader’s plummeting support rate which has been renewing its historic low almost every week since last year. Indeed, Kishida is deeply unpopular at home, and the LDP’s embarrassing defeat in Shimane became a referendum on his leadership, ironically as so touted by the Japanese prime minister himself. Yet, Kishida appears poised to be inexorable in his ascendancy due to the absence of peers rivaling him both inside and outside the LDP. Moreover, the Opposition remains divided more than ever, despite the recent regional rollback against the LDP. In fact, the growing consolidation of Kishida’s singular power is undeniably a product of his divide-and-conquer approach to politics.
While Kishida’s predecessors, such as Shinzo Abe, had previously achieved their unrivaled statuses, what distinguishes the incumbent Japanese prime minister from the rest is his strategic use of surprise. Indeed, his premiership itself was a surprise when a relatively obscure politician suddenly emerged to take Tokyo’s helm. He has also surprised many, including Aso, when he achieved a radical reform of Japan’s national security policy, such as the defense spending increase and the Economic Security Promotion Act of 2022 in mere two years into his first term, a feat which even Abe had failed to accomplish during his seven-year tenure.
Given his proclivity for strategic surprise, Kishida will likely continue to defy expectations. One immediate possibility is a snap election in June. Holding a snap election is the prime minister’s prerogative, and Tokyo is currently bracing for Kishida’s decision. In fact, while many discount the possibility of a snap election in June due to the LDP’s plunging support rate, not dissolving the Diet next month would threaten Kishida’s political longevity. By contrast, holding a snap election would help him purge his rivals without dealing his own hand because of the growing public discontent surrounding the ongoing political funds-related scandal. Kishida’s political maneuvering in the last three years, particularly the dissolution of LDP factions, underscores his determination for a long tenure. Aso is also supportive of Kishida’s ambition and even went out of his way to meet the US presidential candidate Donald J. Trump last month to lay the groundwork for his protégé’s engagement with a potential US president from 2025.
All these emerging factors point to the possibility of a snap election in June, if not at least before the LDP presidential election in September. If Kishida holds a snap election, the LDP will likely suffer a considerable loss of seats to the Opposition, but its ruling status will likely remain unchallenged. By contrast, the LDP’s decline would paradoxically benefit Kishida’s inexorable ascendancy, essentially leading him to become the uncontested leader ahead of the party’s presidential election. In fact, few in Japan currently expect Kishida to hold a snap election before September due to the LDP’s plummeting support rate. No time is more opportune than now for Kishida to pull off the seeming impossible just as he has been doing for the last three years. Indeed, he is already peerless in Tokyo and looks to increasingly ensure that his unipolar moment last for years to come.
Hidetoshi Azuma is a Senior Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress
The views of authors are their own and not that of CSPC.
