Friday News Roundup — November 30, 2018: Senate Issues Rebuke of War in Yemen; Naval Clash between Russia & Ukraine; Various Models for Space Force Under Discussion; and Stories You May Have Missed
Greetings from Washington, D.C. While we enjoyed a brief break over the Thanksgiving holiday — and hope that you enjoyed your time with family and friends — this following week has been packed with major developments, both inside the Beltway and around the world.
In this week’s roundup, Dan Mahaffee looks at the Senate’s rebuke of the administration’s policy towards Saudi Arabia and the support for its war in Yemen. Michael Stecher covers the naval clash between the Ukrainians and Russians and what that means for the region, as well as U.S. and European responses to Russian behavior. Joshua Huminski addresses the latest developments on Space Force and the various proposals being bandied about for how such a restructuring may look. Finally, as always, we wrap with some stories that you may have missed.
We really appreciate all of your feedback, so please let us know what you think. Reach out to Dan.Mahaffee@thepresidency.org or Michael.Stecher@thepresidency.org!
Senate Issues Stunning Rebuke via Vote on War in Yemen
Dan Mahaffee
To borrow from the English playwright William Congreve, “hell hath no fury like a Senator scorned.”
On Wednesday, the Trump administration sent Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense James Mattis to brief the Senate on U.S.-Saudi relations in the aftermath of the brutal murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi and head off a measure in the Senate to end U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition prosecuting the war against the Houthis in Yemen. Notably absent from the briefing was CIA Director Gina Haspel, who appears to be one of the few administration officials who actually listened to the audio recording of Khashoggi’s death.
Already, there had been a growing bipartisan skepticism of U.S. support for the war in Yemen, as both the scope of the humanitarian crisis created by the war has worsened — with 2.2 million Yemeni children suffering from acute malnutrition — and the civilian death toll in airstrikes by Saudi-led forces grew sharply higher. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) has been a vocal opponent of U.S. participation in the conflict for several years and, earlier in 2018, he was joined by Senators Mike Lee (R-UT) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) — respectively the most conservative and fifth-most liberal Senators according to their DW-Nominate scores — for a push on a Congressional vote to end support for the war. Citing the 1973 War Powers Act and Congressional constitutional prerogatives related to war, the Senators argued that the logistical support the U.S. military was providing to the Saudi-led coalition was tantamount to active involvement in the conflict. These initial efforts were forced back, after many in Congress and the administration sought to emphasize the importance of the U.S.-Saudi relationship and joint efforts to push back against Iranian influence in the region.
The butchering of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul changed the calculus for many in the Senate, even as the Trump administration sought to reduce pressure on the Saudi government — particularly Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Even as the CIA determined that the Crown Prince ordered the Khashoggi killing, the Trump administration issued a widely-denounced statement that the U.S. security interests outweighed concerns over Khashoggi’s killing. Overlooking the CIA’s assessment, as well as David Ignatius’s reporting on the dynamics in the Saudi royal family that read like the pages of one of his spy novels, the White House boiled down its own assessment of the Crown Prince’s culpability and knowledge of the murder to “maybe he did, maybe he didn’t.”
This set the stage for Wednesday’s classified briefing, as Secretaries Pompeo and Mattis sought to dissuade and calm growing Senatorial anger with Saudi Arabia and the administration’s response. However, the absence of the CIA director from the briefing ultimately pushed the Senate over the edge, as it voted 63–37 to open debate on the war in Yemen under a War Powers resolution. Even though some Senators were reluctant to tie this measure to the War Powers Act, the vote was used as an opportunity to send a message to both the White House and Riyadh. The mood of the day was best summed up by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) — a stalwart Trump-supporter who had previously voted against efforts to open such a debate — who said, “I changed my mind, because I’m pissed.”
Not only has the Senate made a small step to take back some of the Congressional prerogatives related to war powers — which have steadily atrophied — to rebuke the White House, but it has also demonstrated that the Congress is tired of the administration’s approach to the Saudis, no matter the threatening rhetoric from Tehran nor the Saudi willingness to keep the oil spigots open. The 63 bipartisan Senators who voted in favor of Wednesday’s resolution demonstrated that Saudi actions are in opposition to American values, and that even with a midterm GOP-hold on the Senate, the Trump administration’s increasingly amoral approach to foreign policy won’t get a free pass.
Russia, Ukraine Clash in Waters off Crimea
Michael Stecher
The Kerch Strait separates Russia, on the east coast of the Black Sea, from the Crimean Peninsula, the part of Ukraine illegally occupied and annexed to Russia in 2014. It also divides the main body of the Black Sea from the Sea of Azov, the body of water that provides access to the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, which is the closest major port to the area of active fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed fighters in the area known as the Donbas. Earlier this year, Russia opened a bridge that spanned the straits, allowing 4 lanes of vehicle traffic and 2 trains to transit to the occupied Crimean Peninsula. Russian officials claimed that this would help alleviate the chronic supply shortages there.
In building the bridge, however, Russia also made physical its extraordinary claim to authority of traffic passing through the straits. The design of the bridge allows only one narrow passage through which large oceangoing vessels can pass safely and creates an artificial bottleneck that allows the Russian Coast Guard and security services to halt and inspect ships heading to or from Mariupol. That, in fact, is precisely what happened on Sunday when three Ukrainian naval vessels were seized by Russian forces while attempting to transit the Kerch Straits. During the incident, a Russian Coast vessel rammed a Ukrainian tugboat and opened fire on it, while a large tanker was anchored beneath the bridge to prevent any of the vessels from trying to run the blockade.
Despite an active conflict that has stretched on for four years and resulted in more than 10,000 deaths, this was the first time that Russian forces acting in an official capacity (as opposed to “little green men” and other euphemisms for Russian mercenaries or special operators fighting out of uniform) have fired on the Ukrainian military. As an escalation in the conflict, it drew substantial statements of criticism from the major European powers and belatedly the United States. It also prompted the Government of Ukraine to institute a limited order of martial law for a period of 30 days in areas at risk for “aggression from Russia.”
The declaration of martial law comes at an auspicious moment in Ukrainian politics. Petro Poroshenko, the President of Ukraine, is up for reelection in March and he is very unpopular. Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to underscore this point after the initial seizure of the Ukrainian ships and further alleging that the Ukrainian government had become a darling of the Western powers by whipping up Russophobia, stating, in a metaphor that must lose something in translation, “They can get away with whatever they do. If they want to eat babies for breakfast today, they will likely get served too.”
America’s strategic philosophy has emerged from a reality in which we have a powerful navy and no local threats to our territory. As a result, we tend to think about the ways that power projects from the sea onto land. In the Kerch Strait incident, however, we see a perfect example in which control of the land can project out over water. Russia is seeking to emulate the power that Turkey has in the region through control of the Turkish Straits that pass by Istanbul. Mariupol was the target of one of the first Russian-backed rebel offensives in Ukraine in 2014, when it appeared that rebel forces were seeking to cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov entirely and seize a direct land bridge to Crimea. That assault was repelled, but now Russia has demonstrated that it can close the straits, cut off Mariupol, and enforce its dominion of the Azovian littoral without firing a shot.
There is an important lesson in this for American military planners. The creation of land features to project power of critical sea lanes is exactly what China is doing by building islands in the South China Sea. Now that once-uninhabitable rocks have airfields and missile emplacements, China can assert that they are the physical manifestation of their territorial claims in the region and, in the future, use them to enforce passage restrictions and limit the ability of the US Navy to operate. The Sea of Azov, being less strategically vital and featuring two powers of wildly different capabilities, moved much more quickly from a regime of open passage to one of Russian control, but everyone who is committed to freedom of navigation should see, in the Kerch Straits, a vision of a very dark timeline for the future.
Will the Space Force Reach Orbit?
Joshua Huminski
This week NASA successfully landed its InSight probe on Mars after “seven minutes of hell”, with an incredible series of precision moves that resulted in the spacecraft landing on the red planet after six months of flight. It is, however, looking like the proposed sixth branch of the armed forces, the “Space Force”, may fail to launch.
According to reports, the Pentagon is, at the request of the National Space Council and the National Security Council, preparing alternative options for the Space Force and reviving ideas that had been discarded after President Trump signaled his support for a sixth service. Democrats on the Armed Services Committee, most notably presumptive-Chairman Adam Smith are opposed to the idea. While many of the concept’s key proponents remain in office, including outgoing-Chairman Mike Rogers and Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Jim Inhofe, the Pentagon appears to be planning for a worst-case scenario.
According to reporting by Defense One, the Pentagon is considering four options all of which are likely to be called the “Space Force”. These include: an Air Force-only Space Corps; an Air Force Space Corps that takes some assets from the Army and Navy; an independent Space Force that draws from all three services; or, an independent Space Force with Air Force, Army, and Navy assets, as well as elements of the Intelligence Community’s space missions.
Interestingly, the first option is a resurrection of an earlier idea — the Space Corps. Under this concept, the Space Force would be a separate entity within the Department of the Air Force and reports to the Secretary of the Air Force. This is akin to the Marine Corps, which is run by a Marine four-star general, but overseen by the Secretary of the Navy within the Department of the Navy.
In any case, the planners are seeking to meet the president’s intent, even if the full-on sixth force does not materialize into the Department of the Space Force.
It is encouraging that the White House is considering alternative options in response to pushback from Congress. The Space Force discussion was divorced from the important national security role that needs to be filled and had become a proxy for general views of President Trump. A further give-and-take between appropriators, authorizers, and the executive branch will help settle the issue and move us towards addressing the growing defense challenges in the space domain.
While the sixth force may have been the president’s desired end state, his narrow focus on its creation may drive changes within the Air Force specifically — and national security space more broadly — that will strengthen America’s position in the long run.
News You May Have Missed
Investigation into Indonesian 737 Crash Tells of ‘Man vs. Machine’ Struggle
In examining the “black box” data of Lion Air 610, a Boeing 737 MAX 8 that went down off the coast of Java on October 29th, investigators have found that the pilots struggled to regain control of an aircraft as they fought the automated systems that were originally designed to keep the plane aloft. While investigators have focused on the faulty sensors that led the plane’s computers to push the airplane’s nose downwards, even as pilots fought to pull the plane out of its dive, it has also raised concerns about how automated flight control systems can interpret erroneous data. This incident will add to further debate — largely in aviation circles, yet relevant to our own growing relationship with technology — about reliance on automated systems; whether pilots are sufficiently trained to know when the computer is wrong; and how to override automated systems to restore manual control in an aviation emergency.
Chinese Government’s Electric Vehicle Monitoring Generates Surveillance Concerns
Katherine Atherton
In China, cars built by any of 200 electric vehicle automakers are sending a constant feed of data to government monitoring centers without the car owners’ knowledge. Manufacturers, including popular western car brands, say they are simply complying with local laws. Chinese officials say the data is used for analytics to improve public safety, facilitate infrastructure planning, and prevent fraud in subsidy programs, but critics argue it is used to spy on citizens. This adds to the large array of surveillance tools President Xi Jinping has implemented to track citizens and identify those who may be acting against the Communist Party’s interests.
USNS Comfort is Deployed to Latin America to Assist with Venezuelan Refugees
During a deployment to Central and South America, the USNS Comfort, a floating U.S. Navy hospital, has assisted with the humanitarian crisis of Venezuelan refugees fleeing the economic collapse brought about by the Chavez-Maduro economic policies. Already, the region has been struggling with the outflows of Venezuelans and the range of maladies that have spread as the Venezuelan health care system has collapsed. In addition to helping with Venezulean refugees, the Comfort’s two-month deployment will assist with healthcare needs for other Latin American partner nations.
Driven by Rise in Suicides, Opioids, US Life Expectancy Falls Again
Not since 1915–1918, which included World War One and the Spanish Flu epidemic, has the United States seen as sustained a decline in life expectancy. Drug overdoses rose by more than 10% in 2017 compared to 2016, mostly from fentanyl, heroin, and prescription narcotics. Suicides also continued their tragic rise and the suicide rate for men is up more than 25% since 1999.
As Small Boy Interrupts Papal Audience, Pope Francis Uses the Interruption to Teach about Our Relationship with the Almighty
During a Papal Audience at the Vatican, six-year-old Wenzel Wirth took to the stage to greet the Swiss Guards and frolic around the dais where Pope Francis sat. Despite the efforts of Wenzel’s little sister and mother, the child continued to play as the Papal speech continued. Breaking from his prepared remarks, Pope highlighted Wenzel’s own challenges — as he suffers from speech impediments and other developmental disabilities — and encouraged the audience to learn from this young man in understanding their faith. As the Pope laughed, he said, “He’s free. Undisciplined-ly free, but he’s free…It made me think, ‘Am I so free before God?’”
The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the views of CSPC.
