Friday News Roundup — October 7, 2022
We are now in the season of the October surprise, where even as scandals come to light about candidates, little seems to sway the hyperpartisan. Still, at the macro level, concerns about the economy, crime, and immigration dog Democratic candidates, while Republicans find their candidates mired in culture war controversies and whether to run from, or embrace the man in Mar-a-Lago and his myths about the 2020 election.
In terms of the economic backdrop for the election, the news that OPEC+ would cut oil production has prompted outrage on the Hill, especially focused on Saudi Arabia and the UAE — our ostensible “allies.” Do voters punish the administration? Or will anger be directed at the princes and Putin?
As the Biden administration continues to tighten controls to protect our advanced technology from Chinese military use, this morning the administration announced new restrictions on exports to China, adding 31 Chinese companies, including chipmaker Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), to the “unverified list” — requiring further due diligence for U.S. technology exports and their end use by these companies, or the Chinese military. With the prospect of additional restrictions on U.S. technology and Chinese companies looming, we will be looking at how industry will adapt and what Beijing will consider as countermeasures.
Finally, reflecting a campaign promise and a more cautious approach than some would like, the Biden administration also announced a mass pardoning of selected federal cases of simple cannabis possession. As part of this effort, the administration would also review the scheduling of cannabis in federal drug law. While the timing is politically motivated, it is a signal to the 19 states plus the District of Columbia that have fully legalized recreational cannabis and an industry expected to reach $13 billion in size in 2022.
CSPC President & CEO Glenn Nye joined a discussion at the Atlantic Council this week to discuss the future of U.S. intelligence and Congressional oversight moderated by Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH).
For the Diplomatic Courier this week, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence & Global Affairs director Joshua C. Huminski reviewed Stefan Aust and Adrian Geiges’ “Xi Jinping: The Most Powerful Man in the World”. Ahead of the 20th Party Congress, the German authors provide a fascinating portrait of China’s president and head of the Chinese Communist Party, offering more insight into his worldview and formative experiences. CSPC is hosting both authors on 13 October at 1000 ET for a conversation. You can register for the event via this link.
Huminski also penned an op-ed in the Hill arguing that while the focus on Russia’s nuclear threats is both sensible and prudent, it is important to look at the panoply of tools that Moscow has at its disposal to both retaliate against the West and signal its intentions.
In this week’s roundup, Huminski looks at the assassination of Daria Dugina and what we should understand beyond the more sensational headlines. Jordan Trusel looks at the implications of the recent International Telecommunication Union elections, where U.S. candidate Doreen Bogdan-Martin won the race for Secretary-General.
U.S. Intelligence Believes Ukraine Behind Killing of Russian Nationalist
Joshua C. Huminski
U.S. intelligence officials believe that Ukraine was behind the assassination of Daria Dugina, daughter of Russian polemicist Alexander Dugin in August of this year. According to unidentified officials, Kyiv authorized the assassination, which was likely aimed at Dugin himself, but who switched cars at the last minute. Officials also pointed out that America had no prior knowledge of the operation and were not involved in any way.
That Ukraine was able to conduct an operation well inside Russia is impressive in and of itself and suggests the reach that Kyiv’s special operations or covert forces have. Ukraine has conducted a number of operations well behind the front lines (such as in Crimea) and inside of Russia, but the killing of Dugina was perhaps the boldest yet.
Ukraine, not surprisingly, continues to deny any involvement. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said “I’ll underline that any murder during wartime in some country or another must carry with it some kind of practical significance.” He added, “It should fulfill some specific purpose, tactical or strategic. Someone like Dugina is not a tactical or a strategic target for Ukraine.”
The question as to why this information was selectively disclosed naturally emerges. It does increase the threat perspective of Russians within Russia proper. It does contribute to the information warfare space, by suggesting that no one is beyond Kyiv’s reach. There are of course limits to this — it is highly unlikely that Ukrainian forces could target Putin or his inner circle.
Indeed, Dugin and Dugina were relatively low-hanging fruit, marginal nationalist voices in the ecosystem of Russia’s domestic propaganda network. Dugin, in particular, was given outsized importance in the West’s perspective largely due to the fact that he spoke English. For Moscow, Dugin was and remains a convenient catspaw articulating nationalist narratives when necessary, but also serving as an extremist voice against which the Kremlin can sound moderate by comparison. He is, perhaps, the equivalent of a Seb Gorka within American conservative politics. His daughter, Dugina, was an even less important figure appearing not in primetime, but after hours.
There is also the possibility that a “Munich” situation could well emerge, which would see Kyiv seeking retribution for mass murders and atrocities within Ukraine. After the massacre of Israeli athletes by Palestinian terrorists at the Munich Olympics in 1972, Israel embarked on a global campaign of retaliation (“Operation Wrath of God”), striking those responsible for the attacks. While Dugin was not directly responsible for the atrocities at Bucha and elsewhere, he contributed to the ecosystem which brought about the space in which these atrocities took place. This made him in Kyiv’s eyes, a legitimate target.
For the United States, the selective disclosure does pierce the perception that Washington and Kyiv are in lockstep when it comes to cooperation. While military and intelligence cooperation has steadily increased, there are limits to both the aid that the United States can and will supply, and that which Kyiv will disclose to Washington. Indeed, in May of this year, unidentified American officials said that Washington helped Ukraine target and kill Russian generals — a statement that was swiftly walked back.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the United States does not have full visibility into Ukraine’s military aims, political factions, or broader operations. This is, of course, not surprising — yet it does pose a challenge to Washington. While there is little perceptional space between Washington and Kyiv in the eyes of Moscow, India, China, or the Global South, it still does risk being drawn into operational outcomes for which it had not planned or in which it had not participated.
The killing of Dugina could provide fodder for Russia’s other nationalist propagandists and the Kremlin itself — spinning it as Ukrainian aggression against Russian citizens on Russian soil. That it would be in response to Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine is irrelevant to both the propagandists and their audiences. Could Russia retaliate? Certainly. Moscow has demonstrated a willingness to target adversaries further afield such as in London and Salisbury, England, and in Germany. Does it have the operational capacity to do so at the moment? That is an open question given that it appears the bulk of Russia’s intelligence assets are, understandably, focused on activities in Ukraine. It would, however, be foolish to rule anything out, including either direct or indirect action by Moscow in the future.
U.S. Candidate Wins ITU Secretary-General Election
By Jordan Trusel
The oldest agency of the United Nations is receiving a lot of new interest. On September 29, governments came together for elections for the leadership of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). The ITU develops worldwide technical standards for the internet and is responsible for coordinating global telecommunication operations and services. The U.S candidate for Secretary-General, Doreen Bogdan-Martin, received 139 votes, easily defeating Rashid Ismailov, a former Russian government telecom minister and Huawei vice president. Ms. Bogdan-Martin has 28 years of experience with the ITU and she makes history as the first woman to be in the position as Secretary-General in the agency’s 157 yearlong existence. Japan’s Seizo Onoe was elected to lead the ITU’s Telecommunication Standardization Bureau, an important organization that helps develop and implement global standards for a host of digital technologies and applications. Ms. Bogdan-Martin replaces Chinese national Houlin Zhao, who had been at the helm of the organization since 2014. Until recently, China had outnumbered the United States two-to-one in ITU leadership positions.
The ITU elections arguably determine the future of not just the U.N. body but also possibly of the internet itself. By enabling platforms for global interconnectivity, the internet has transformed the way people live. However, this is not a guaranteed experience everywhere. Today, technology companies operating in authoritarian countries like Russia and China have to deal with local laws that force them to comply with censorship demands, and requirements for data localization or data access by host governments. Chinese and Russian officials have used the power of the ITU to push an agenda that heavily places control of the internet in the hands of the government, making it easier for countries to surveil citizens and limit access to information. Proposals like the “New IP” addressing system endorsed by Chinese leaders would give governments more authority over internet activities. President Biden has made the competition between democracy and autocracy at the forefront of his administration’s foreign policy agenda; his support for Bogdan-Martin as the next secretary-general embodies the push for open and free internet access — which is a key pillar of this strategy. As the technical dimensions and standards of new generations of the internet are rolled out on an international level, the U.S. saw this election as an opportunity to take on more leadership and positively redirect the future of the internet. President Biden described the U.S. candidate as possessing “the integrity, experience, and vision necessary to transform the digital landscape.” “The world is facing significant challenges — escalating conflicts, a climate crisis, food security, gender inequalities, and 2.7 billion people with no access to the Internet,” said Bogdan-Martin after her victory. “I believe we, the ITU and our members, have an opportunity to make a transformational contribution.”
News You May Have Missed
The Rising Number Of Americans In Wrongful Detention Abroad
There has been a notable rise in the number of Americans being wrongfully held by state actors abroad over the past decade, according to a study conducted by the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation. The average number has risen to 34, compared to only five from 2001 to 2011. The majority of the cases are in Russia, China, North Korea, Syria, and Iran. This tactic has shifted from being a tool used by terrorist groups like ISIS to being used more commonly by adversarial governments. This year there are 19 countries that have wrongfully detained U.S. citizens compared to four countries from 2001–2005. Negotiations between U.S. officials and these nations are crucial in the first year, as 56 percent of those who have been released from wrongful detention were released after a year or less. 63 percent of U.S. nationals were either rescued or escaped during the period of the study. The Foundation calls for stronger U.S. retaliation to combat wrongful detentions. President Biden issued an executive order in August that stated that sanctions and visa bans will be used to push for the release of Americans. The Administration announced a prisoner swap with Russia in April and secured the release of American contractor Matt Frerichs from Afghanistan, where he was held for over two years.
The European Union Considers Banning Use Of Facial Recognition Technology
The proposed ban has gained support from multiple groups in the European Parliament. Political group Renew is the most recent to show its support for the ban, joining the Greens and Socialists & Democrats. Those in support of the ban argue that facial recognition techniques are a form of mass surveillance, which has serious potential risks. They point out that these methods are used by authoritarian governments in countries like Russia and China and can be used to discriminate against certain population groups. Daniel Leufer, a campaigner for NGO Access Now, stated that “This technology has no place in a society committed to democracy and fundamental rights.”
Opposition to this ban has come from governments in the European Union that feel attached to facial recognition technology as a form of national security. They argue that facial recognition technology makes it easier for law enforcement to spot terrorists, kidnappers, and other criminals.
Negotiations will continue between the members of the European Parliament and a final position will be taken by the end of the year.
Swedish Security Police: Nord Stream leaks were likely caused by sabotage
Veera Parko
After Swedish and Danish authorities announced severe leaks caused by explosions in two underwater gas pipelines — Nord Stream 1 and 2 — last week, the matter has been investigated further by Swedish Security Services. On Thursday October 6, they released a press release saying that the criminal investigation into the leaks had been completed. The language of the press release remains somewhat vague, but the overall message is clear: the investigation strengthened the suspicions that the leaks were an act of “gross sabotage” and the leaks were caused by detonations underwater. The authorities further note that “certain seizures” of material were made during the investigation, and further investigations will show whether anyone can be suspected or charged with the crime.
The views of authors are their own and not that of CSPC.
